Beware of those numbers!

I have been wanting to do this for quite some time. It’s about putting some sense into numbers being brandished about by politicians (especially) and published in the mainstream media without regard for what these numbers mean. Often, these irresponsible people do this for their own political agenda. Worst, they use these numbers to arrive at their distorted conclusions which they would later turn into policies to administer and govern the country.

My objective is simple. It is to enlighten the Malaysian public every time they see these numbers reported in the media. It is by no means to reject them every time they appear, for we can’t possibly live a modern life without numbers. But, as we progress amongst the civilized societies of the world, it is my hope that Malaysians become smarter and not being taken in easily by anyone (politicians, or otherwise) who tries to pull the wool over our eyes.

So, from time to time you will see in my blog post news reports from the media concerning numbers—any kind of numbers—that I believe is more than just meets the eye. I would welcome suggestion from readers who wish to highlight similar news reports involving numbers so that we can make some sense of them.

For starters, here’s one from Utusan Malaysia, June 25, 2009. The English translation follows. I have taken the liberty to bold-emphasize words related to numbers.

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Kempen pelekat, lencana antirasuah berkesan

KOTA KINABALU 24 Jun – Kempen pencegahan rasuah melalui pelekat kenderaan dan lencana antirasuah yang diperkenalkan pucuk pimpinan Polis Diraja Malaysia (PDRM), lima tahun lalu, berjaya mengurangkan gejala rasuah di kalangan warganya kira-kira 45 peratus.

Penolong Ketua Urusetia Ketua Polis Negara (Tatatertib), Asisten Komisioner Hashim Abdul Jalil berkata, kempen tersebut terbukti berjaya meningkatkan kesedaran di kalangan anggota dan pegawainya berhubung salah laku rasuah.

Beliau berkata, kempen tersebut akan terus dipergiatkan termasuk pengedaran poster antirasuah dan penerbitan buletin integriti bagi mencapai sasaran sifar rasuah di dalam PDRM.

“Sejak kempen (pelekat dan lencana antirasuah) dijalankan, kajian mendapati banyak penurunan kes-kes berkaitan rasuah yang menunjukkan keberkesanan walaupun secara berperingkat-peringkat.

“Ini membuktikan kempen tersebut berjaya menyemai kesedaran anggota dan pegawai polis malah nampak perubahan (kesedaran) anggota polis terhadap gejala rasuah,” katanya.

Beliau berkata demikian ketika ditemui pada Forum Penguatkuasaan Undang-Undang Berintegriti anjuran Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM) di sini hari ini.

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Anti-corruption campaign using stickers, badges effective

KOTA KINABALU 24 Jun – The anti-corruption campaign using car stickers and badges introduced by the top leaders of the Royal Malysian Police (PDRM) five years ago has been successful in reducing corruption by about 45 percent amongst the police force.

Assistant Head of Administration for the Inspector General of Police (Disciplinary), Assistant Commissioner Hashim Abdul Jalil said, the campaign has been proven to have increased awareness amongst police personnel of the criminal act of corruption.

He said, the campaign will be intensified to include the distribution of anti-corruption posters and the publication of a bulletin on integrity so that the target of zero corruption in PDRM can be realized.

“Since the campaign started, researches had found there was a big reduction in cases related to corruption, albeit in stages. This shows the campaign’s effectiveness.

“This proves that the campaign has been successful at instilling awareness in police personnel. Furthermore, one can see changes and awareness of corruption amongst police personnel,” he said.

He said these when met during the Forum on the Enforcement of Law and Integrity organized by the Malaysian Anti-corruption Commission (MACC) here today.

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Now, let us dissect whatever little piece of information quoted by the media from our well-intentioned ACP Hashim.

1) How was that drop of 45 percent counted? What were the true numbers? A drop from 5,000 cases in 2003 to 2,750 cases in 2008 is 45 percent. So is a drop from 500 to 275 cases over the same period. While the former represents 37.5 less cases in a month on average, the latter means 3.75 less cases a month. Same percentage, but worlds apart in terms of the true numbers.

2) Is that number an average of the number for officers and one for the rank-and-file? What are these numbers on their own?

3) Is this 45 percent derived from sampling, or was it actual count? If it is the former, how was the sampling done? Was data collected for each state? What about for each division or branch or department of the Police? Are there figures for the traffic division, the criminal investigation division, and the administrative division? Again, what are they on their own?

4) Who did the research? Who calculated this average? This question alone can shed a huge spotlight onto the conclusion such research is trying to arrive at.

There are several other questions that would help put this 45 percent drop in corruption into perspective. But the above will do, just for starters. Again, I do not suggest that readers rubbish numbers like this the instant they see it. Far from it—we need numbers to advance as a progressive society. The point is, let us raise the level of our intellect so as to be able to duck the curved ball every time someone throws a number at us. Who knows, in the process, this might help increase the level of intellect amongst our politicians and the authorities as well.

A wise man once said, “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King!”